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    Exploring all aspects of mapping and geography, from field data collection, to mapping and analysis, to integration, applications development, enterprise architecture and policy

Hype Cycle

Posted by Dave Smith On 8/20/2006 10:57:00 PM 1 comments

Where are things headed in technology? Harry Chen picked up on Gartner's updated Hype Cycle, which features their assessments and predictions for technology adoption. New to this year's chart are Ajax, folksonomies, and Wiki. Personally, I think standardizations, based on ISO, Marc, Dublin Core and other approaches beat the folksonomy, but it is interesting to see all of these technologies in a big picture, and to compare notes. I have some slightly differing opinions on some of these technologies. Further, it might be interesting to look at a similar diagram, as it pertains specifically to geospatial technologies, such as location-based services, temporal analysis, common operational picture, interoperability, wireless, web services, geoprocessing, BPEL and other areas...

In the diagrams, they show technologies passing through 5 major phases...

  1. Technology Trigger: The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the “technology trigger” or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
  2. Inflated Expectations:In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
  3. Trough of Disillusionment:Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
  4. Slope of Enlightenment: Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
  5. Plateau of Productivity: A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

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1 Response for the " Hype Cycle "

  1. Hey, I came across your blog while browsing through Technorati. I've been reading various blogs for several hours today, and I just wanted to say that yours was the first one that went completely over my head!! Time to start reading up on "hype cycles," I guess....